Does Ron Paul have a chance?

Actually, mostly yes.

220 thousand voted in the Texas 2004 Republican primay and 54000 in the New Hampshire 2004 Republican primary. That's roughly 1% and 5% of those states populations voting, respectively. So, in order to win let's assume you'd need 3% of the US population voting. If Ron Paul really has a base of even 3% of the American population dedicated to him, then he would succeed.

Alaska had a fairly unbiased poll and he was at the top with 28%. He's certainly not doing as well as internet polls would leave you to believe nor as bad as other polls say. According to today's Rasmussen poll, only Mitt Romney and Huckabee are above 10%. Without knowing how they poll, I cannot trust any poll thoroughly. (Note: No political poll is "scientific". If you can criticize how a poll is conducted, it "unscientific".)

Polls like the Rasmussen report place Ron at 5%. That's people who have already registered, have voted in the past, and have land line phones. Now, if you add in internet and grassroots support, and if you add in people that will be "converted", if you will, and add in people who are just registering or don't usually vote in primaries, then I'd bet he has a base of more than 10% of the American population. That's more than enough to win - if they show up.

Even if he only has 5% of the entire population, those people are very likely to show up.

There's actually a big roadblock. One third of the delegates, people who actually select the candidate, are Republican party leadership. If they all vote for anyone besides Ron Paul, he would need about 80% of the popular vote to win. That's a huge kink in the chain. However, if he did do that well but wasn't nominated, he might run without the nomination.

Huckabee, Romney, and Paul each have something great going for them. Huckabee appeals to a lot of Americans. Romney has an excellent record and lots of money. Ron Paul has grassroots supporters that money can't buy and it will translate into a bigger victory for him than cable television realizes. (The people who support Ron Paul probably would die for that man..)

I don't believe anyone else has a chance of beating any of those three. Fred Thompson doesn't have any momentum. McCain is out of money and very pro-war. And Guiliani is on a downward spiral - America is too conservative for drag queens.

The difference between Huckabee, Romney, and Paul are their backgrounds. Who you vote for will depend on your core values and how much you actually research them - not that it's a bad thing, just that there are three different yet viable choices.